Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
